Notebook, 1993-


Base Rating / Odds

Underlying Odds [In terms of judgement or an estimate . . . . ] . . . . the base rate, or underlying probability of an event. Estimates should be made at a 70-30 rate, if that is the base rate--even if, intuitively, there seems a 50-50 chance. In many high-risk situations, ignoring base rates is the same as thinking you are an exception to the rule.

[Coon, Dennis. Introduction to Psychology, Exploration and Application. St. Paul: West Publishing Company, 1989. Chapter: Learning & Cognition]



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